Stock Market Analysis for November 16, 2024

As we approach week 47 of 2024, the stock market remains in a state of flux, influenced by recent global events, economic indicators, and upcoming key announcements.

Previous Week in Review

Last week, the S&P 500 closed down 1.5%, marking a setback amidst concerns about rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes. The tech sector, heavily weighted in major indices, saw significant volatility, particularly following disappointing earnings reports from several tech giants.

Key Events Impacting the Market

1. Inflation Report: On Thursday, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, which has heightened fears of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
2. Geopolitical Tensions: Recent escalations in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher, exceeding $95 per barrel, further straining inflationary pressures.
3. Earnings Season: While most companies reported earnings meeting or exceeding expectations, guidance noted concerns about economic slowdown which has added to the market’s uncertainty.

Events to Watch

1. Federal Reserve Meeting: The next scheduled meeting on December 12 could provide insights into the Fed’s trajectory regarding interest rates.
2. Retail Sales Data: The upcoming retail sales data on November 27 will shed light on consumer spending patterns—crucial for predicting economic growth.
3. China’s Economic Indicators: Watch for China’s Q4 GDP projections due next week, which could influence global market sentiment.

Recommendations

• Buy:

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Long-term investors should consider adding to SPY to capitalize on potential rebounds from current levels.

• Amazon (AMZN): Given its strong e-commerce positioning, AMZN’s stock is poised for a potential bounce as holiday shopping ramps up.

• Sell:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): With recent price action indicating a reversal trend and the sector’s volatility, it may be prudent to take profits if positioned in NVDA.

• Tesla (TSLA): Due to uncertainty in the auto market and regulatory concerns, consider trimming positions.

Summary

Market sentiment remains mixed ahead of significant economic data releases and updates from the Federal Reserve. Investors should stay vigilant and consider both long-term ETFs and strategic trades in individual stocks based on upcoming market indicators.