Stock Market Analysis for July 23, 2025

Overview

As we begin the day and week, let’s take a close look at how the stock market performed last week (July 16-22, 2025) and what factors might influence it moving forward.

Last Week’s Performance

The stock market saw mixed results last week, influenced largely by:

• Interest Rate Decisions: The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain interest rates at 5.25% had a direct impact on speculative growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, pushing the S&P 500 to close down 0.5% for the week.
• Earnings Reports: Major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft released their earnings reports, showing moderate growth which slightly disappointed investors. Apple’s stock dipped 3% as guidance trimmed expectations for the upcoming quarter.
• Global Events: Concerns over geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Middle Eastern oil supply impacted the energy sector, driving the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) down by 4%.

Key Events Impacting the Market

On Friday, July 21, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a decrease in manufacturing activity, which indicated a slowdown in the economy. This has created concerns about a potential recession, impacting sentiment across market sectors.

Major News of the Day

In addition to economic data, ongoing discussions surrounding proposed regulations for Big Tech are weighing on investor sentiment. This week, the Senate plans to hold hearings on privacy regulations for technology companies, adding to the uncertainty.

Upcoming Events to Watch

1. Economic Data Releases: Tuesday will bring New Home Sales data, and Thursday will feature Jobless Claims, both of which could provide more insight into the state of the economy.
2. Earnings from Critical Sectors: This week, we can expect significant earnings reports from companies like Tesla and Walmart, which will provide more direction for the market.
3. Fed Officials’ Remarks: Monitor speeches from Fed officials throughout the week, as comments on future monetary policy could sway market expectations.

Recommendations

BUY

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Likely to recover as investor confidence stabilizes post-earnings.
• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Potential upside as tech stocks adjust post-earnings reports.

SELL

• Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and price fluctuations in oil, it would be prudent to trim exposure.
• Apple Inc. (AAPL): After disappointing guidance, consider selling to await more favorable conditions.

In conclusion, investors should stay aware of upcoming data releases and corporate results that could influence market direction in the coming days. Caution and strategic positioning could be the key as we navigate through potentially tumultuous waters.

Conclusion

As we move forward into this trading week, keeping a pulse on economic indicators and corporate earnings will be crucial for making informed investment choices.